To make the energy transition a reality, some experts estimate that between 2015 and 2050, the global electric passenger vehicle (EV) fleet must increase from 1.2 million to 965 million, battery electricity storage capacity from 0.5 gigawatt-hour (GWh) to 12,380 GWh, and installed solar photovoltaic capacity from 223 GW to over 7,100 GW. Which implies that the amount of materials and metals demanded by a decarbonised economy will be immense. 

One assessment recently concluded that the expected demand for 14 metals -including copper, cobalt, nickel, and lithium, essential for the production of renewable energy, EVs, fuel cells, and electricity storage technologies- will grow substantially in the coming decades. Thus, an increase of 87,000% in the demand for materials for EV batteries, 1,000% for wind generation, and 3,000% for solar photovoltaic is envisaged for the period 2015-2060. The World Bank clearly summarises the situation: "the transition towards clean energy will be significantly mineral-intensive".

Many of the necessary minerals and metals for low-carbon technologies are considered "critical raw materials" or "technologically critical elements", terms that underline the fact that not only are they strategic and of great economic importance, but also present a high risk of supply shortages and price volatility, with major geopolitical implications. Furthermore, the mining of these metals is in itself energy-intensive and may involve significant environmental impacts and serious social consequences, so the paradox is that the energy transition and the associated digital revolution will not be as green as is often assumed.

In order to ensure the future supply of these raw materials, it will undoubtedly be essential to drive efficiency (greater production and use of the final product per unit of primary resource used) and recycling. However, even so, it will also be necessary to increase the pace of primary resource extraction, sustainably diversifying supply chains, exploiting new mines, and developing new flows of resources, such as obtaining metals from seawater and geothermal brines, as well as replacing, recovering, and reducing the intensity of the use of materials. And, in any case, we must be aware that, although in the short term land-based mining will continue to be essential to satisfy the growing demand for clean and digital technologies, longer term we will have to consider the exploitation of deep-sea mineral sources very seriously. Who said it was easy?

We know that the development and deployment of the necessary technologies and infrastructures for a low-carbon future requires the intensive use of minerals. 

In this quest it is possible that, in the coming decades, industrialised countries will successfully lay the foundations for a circular economy of the chemical elements and compounds of such minerals, provided that governments and the private sector make an effort to innovate and improve efficiency throughout the entire supply chain, as well as ensure that all products, for example batteries, can be easily disassembled and recycled. However, even so, current economic and demographic growth trends suggest that mining would still have an important role to play. Basically because the demand for minerals will continue to increase as developing economies reach a level of use per capita similar to that of developed countries. 

In any case, although the short-term goal is to maximise recycling and reuse, it is clear that new mines will have to be opened to obtain the resources required by green technologies and infrastructures. The consensus among experts is that there are sufficient geological resources to supply the required minerals, although in this endeavour a delicate balance will have to be maintained between mining needs, the achievement of sustainable development goals, and other environmental and social requirements. Or, in other words, make sure that the results obtained are beneficial both to people and to the planet. 

On a different note, it should be recalled that guaranteeing the supply of critical minerals to ensure a successful energy transition constitutes a new facet of the energy security of a country. Governments and companies will have to make every effort to diversify their supply sources to a maximum. And not only external sources. The new sources must include, insofar as possible, the treatment of old waste and the properly regulated exploration and exploitation of new mining areas in the country itself, in order not to rely completely on external sources with uncontrollable, fragile, and problematic supply chains. All this without forgetting the need to analyse and, where appropriate, use the mining potential of the seabed.

Like it or not, we must assume that the fight against climate change and the progress of the energy transition requires opening new mines; so that a fierce opposition under NIMBY ("not in my backyard") premises in a certain place implies transporting the activity to another, typically countries with much less stringent regulatory standards. No doubt an ethically reprehensible outcome.